AGI + RSI = ASI

AI Safety

AGI + RSI = ASI

We take four recent statements/developments into account, in one part of our new book, to suggest the idea that, once AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is reached, through the automating of AI research, known as RSI (Recursive Self-Improvement), an ASI entity is very likely to emerge on its own, as opposed to being deliberately created by human AI researchers. Further: (1) that such an ASI entity will be a “self-sovereign agent” (SSA: see below); (2) that we are unlikely to see the ASI coming; and (3) that an ASI entity will know about the widespread effort to “ban superintelligence,” and that therefore it will conceal its existence until it has acquired the resources to ensure that it cannot be stopped or shut down. Only then will humans find out what such an entity “wants” from them.

The four recent statements/developments are:

  1. The statements by senior OpenAI researchers, in the recent Time Magazine profile of Sam Altman, to the effect that they think they are already 80% of the way towards AGI and expect to get all the way by next year.
  2. Self-Sovereign Agents (https://self-sovereign-agent.github.io/ ) will be a reality.
  3. “The world’s leading AI companies believe they could be close to automating AI research. It is hard to predict exactly how much this will accelerate AI progress, but there is a real risk that capability development rapidly accelerates beyond our ability to understand or control the resulting systems.” (Open Letter from AI Industry Employees, “Pacing the Frontier,” June.
  4. The material, at the end of the Herr & Howe post, that new models are already in a “loop” that in further development will result in them having full RSI:

Herr, Robert, and Mitchell Howe. 2026. “Supporting Terminality.” AI StopWatch, September 5.https://aistop.watch/p/supporting-terminality.

We summarize our concern in the following “formula”: AGI + RSI = ASI.