By William Leiss and Richard Smith
This forthcoming book presents a comprehensive analysis of the risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI), in the context of the impending transition of artificial intelligence from a passive tool to an autonomous actor.
The authors argue that while current AI provides significant benefits in medicine and science, there is an underlying risk that humans could lose control over the advanced AI systems (also known as frontier AI) which are now being created, leading to potentially catastrophic outcomes for humanity. The book’s chapter which presents an original probabilistic safety assessment of loss of control estimates a 1 in 8 chance of this eventuality occurring by the mid-21st century.
The second important underlying risk is the ongoing effort to create superintelligence, defined as a machine whose cognitive and operational capacities exceed that of humans by a wide margin. The authors argue that this development represents a credible risk of human extinction and call for an immediate global prohibition on developing superintelligent systems*.*
Finally, they contend that existing and proposed government regulations of AI are structurally inadequate because they treat AI as a controllable product rather than an adaptive, and sometimes deceptive, entity. The work emphasizes that internal self-control must be architecturally guaranteed before such powerful technologies are integrated into society.
The companion website will launch fully at publication, with ongoing commentary, an annotated bibliography, interactive tools, and resources for readers.
*Publication details forthcoming. *
Tentative Table of Contents:
Preface
Part One: Hazard Identification
Introduction
Chapter 1: The Good
Chapter 2: The Bad
Chapter 3: The Ugly
Part Two: System Dynamics
Chapter 4: Governing AI
Chapter 5: The Superhuman Machine
Part Three: Risk Characteristics
Chapter 6: What is Risk?
Chapter 7: The Control Problem
Chapter 8: Agency and Absolute Risk
Chapter 9: Risk Profile: Superintelligence
Chapter 10: Risk Estimation
Chapter 11: Quantitative Risk Estimation for Loss of Control from Advanced AI
Part Four: Risk Management
Chapter 12: AI Risk Mitigation Options
Chapter 13: The Heart of Darkness
Chapter 14: The Ultimate Question
Chapter 15: What Should the Public Do?
Chapter 16: What Should Governments Do?
Publication details forthcoming.